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Has SA actually missed the R30 billion cannabis bus?
Wandile Sihlobo, Agbiz's chief economist, said it plainly this week: South Africa has missed the R30 billion cannabis bus, at least for now. His words in BusinessTech, not mine, and worth reading in full.
His argument is that we've been slow and the world moved on. The Cannabis Master Plan has been sitting around since 2018, when the Constitutional Court legalised private use. It was sold as an industry that could add R30 billion to the economy and create thousands of jobs. Then the Cannabis for Private Purposes Act got signed in May 2024, and it still hasn't come into force. The regulations we were promised for the end of March 2026 never arrived.
Meanwhile the grey market keeps running. The Health Department banned cannabis foodstuffs last year, then had to reverse it almost immediately because it hit more than 1,800 legitimate businesses. Permits exist, but they're expensive and slow to get.
Sihlobo's real point isn't "give up". It's "stop overselling it". He says global mood on cannabis has turned downbeat, but there are cycles in these things and SA should keep going. He just doesn't want it treated as a silver bullet. It's an addition, like any other commodity.
I've sat on both sides of this fence. The R30 billion number was always marketing. But the stall is real, and the people who pay for it are the small growers who can't get a licence while the illicit trade runs circles around them.
So where do you sit? Did we actually miss the bus, or is this just the down part of a cycle before it swings back?